Martingale
A betting progression strategy where you double your bet after every loss and reset to your base bet after every win — designed to recover all previous losses with a single win.
The Martingale is the most widely known betting strategy in crash games — and the most reliably misunderstood. It produces frequent small wins and occasional catastrophic losses. Over time, those catastrophic losses exceed the accumulated small wins by the house edge amount.
Why it seems to work
In the short run, the Martingale delivers consistent +1 base bet profits as long as you win at least once within each progression sequence. At a 2x target with ~49% win rate, most sequences complete on round 1 or 2.
The psychological experience: win $10, win $10, win $10, lose, win $10, win $10… feels like a profitable strategy.
The bust sequence
The problem appears when you hit a losing streak. At 2x target (49% win rate), a 7-round losing streak has probability ~0.7%. Rare — but over hundreds of sessions, it will occur.
| Round | Bet | Loss cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $10 |
| 2 | $20 | $30 |
| 3 | $40 | $70 |
| 4 | $80 | $150 |
| 5 | $160 | $310 |
| 6 | $320 | $630 |
| 7 | $640 | $1,270 |
To recover all losses from a 7-round streak requires a single $640 bet win — to earn back $1,270 and net $10 profit. At this point, table limits or bankroll exhaustion typically prevent recovery.
Why it doesn’t beat the house edge
The Martingale converts the house edge from a smooth drain into periodic catastrophic losses. The expected loss per base unit bet remains (1 − RTP) regardless of progression. You are not changing the math — you are changing the distribution of losses.
The gentler alternative
The D’Alembert adds one unit after a loss and subtracts one unit after a win. Slower progression, much lower catastrophic risk, same long-run EV.
Related terms
- Anti-Martingale — the inverse: increase after wins, decrease after losses
- Base Bet — the unit your progression is built on
- Bankroll — must be deep enough to survive progression sequences